AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Erases Friday Losses Overnight

Corn futures are trading 3 cents higher this morning. They were down 2 to 3 cents on Friday, with some pressure from soybeans. December corn was still 2 cents higher for the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that money managers in corn futures and options held a net short position of 170,626 contracts on Sept 17. That was a bearish increase of 34,227 contracts from the week prior. Total corn export commitments as of 9/12 were just 17% of the USDA full year projection vs. the normal 27% pace for this time of year. The total 8.65 MMT in shipped and unshipped sales is the lowest since 2005/06 for the second week in September.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Reverses Friday Losses On Trade Hopes

Soybeans futures are mostly 8 to 13 cents higher this morning after Chinese sources indicated that the abrupt departure last week was not tied to the status of the trade negotiations. They posted 9 to 10 1/4 cent losses in the front months on Friday. For the week, Nov was down 1.78%. Soybean meal was down $1.10/ton on Friday, with soy oil 53 points lower. Spec funds trimmed their net short position in soybean futures and options by 43,556 contracts to -48,181 contracts as of Tuesday. In soy meal futures and options, they were within 500 contracts of their previous record net short position on Tuesday at 54,751 contracts. The total of combined shipped and unshipped soybean export sales is now 23% of the full year USDA export projection vs. the 40% average for this date. At 11.18 MMT, they are the smallest for week 2 of the new MY since 08/09.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are anywhere from 2 to 7 cents higher this morning, with MPLS spring wheat again leading the bulls. Chicago is the weakest as the inter-market spreads relax from the record premium recently held by SRW. They ended Friday with winter wheat contracts 2 to 4 cents lower, while MPLS was up 2 to 4 cents. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders expanding their record net short position in MPLS wheat futures and options as of September 17 to -23,071 contracts. They may have been paring that back at the end of the week. Canadian harvest progress has been limited. US Export commitments for 2019/20 wheat are still 20.4% larger than they were at this time last year. They are 46% of the USDA projected total, with the normal pace showing 52% complete at this point in the year. Russia’s IKAR left their 2019 wheat production estimate at 75 MMT, which compares to the USDA at 72.5 MMT. EU wheat production is seen at 143.3 MMT for 2019 according to Coceral, a 3 MMT jump from their prior number. ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Sees Friendly COF Report

Live cattle futures were down 22.5 to 67.5 cents on Friday ahead of the COF report. October was up 1.30% for the week. Feeder cattle futures were higher in the front months, with deferred contracts lower. Sep FC were 2.8% higher for the full week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $1.24 on September 19 at $138.53. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed August placements down 8.99% from last year at 1.884 million head and below estimates. Marketings were 1.953 million head for the month, down just 1.51% from last year on 1 less marketing day. September 1 on feed inventory was the smallest in 23 months at 10.982 million head, down 1.29% from last year. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.20 at $216.97, with Select boxes 44 cents lower at $191.72. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter @ 658,000 head including the Saturday estimate. That is up 5,000 head from the same week last year and a 29,000 jump from the previous week. USDA reported a few $102 sales in KS on Friday, up $1 from Thursday’s trade action, with NE at $102 as well. Spec funds were shown adding 653 contracts to their record CFTC net short position in live cattle futures and options at -6,885 as of 9/17.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary

Lean Hog futures closed 32.5 cents to $1.70 lower on Friday, with Oct down 9.21% for the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 44 cents at $56.32 on September 18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up 13 cents on Friday afternoon at $69.15. Most of the strength came from the belly primal, up $4.89. The national average base hog value was down 22 cents at $44.14 on Friday. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 2.587 million head through Saturday. That was well above the same week in 2018 and 24,000 head below last week. The market is still subject to China trade rumors, with some arguing that a tariff free window is possible for soybeans and pork in the current negotiations.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Down 2 to 45 Points Overnight

Cotton futures are trading 2 to 45 points lower this morning. They closed 3 to 24 points higher on Friday, with deferred contracts lower. Dec cotton was down 2.75% on the week. The US dollar index is higher. Commitment of Traders data shows spec funds backing off their net short position in cotton futures and options by 9,674 contracts to -24,890 contracts on Tuesday. Export commitments of shipped and unshipped upland cotton sales are now 55% of USDA’s projected 19/20 total. That is above the 54% average pace but down from 68% for the same time last year. Thursday’s Cotton On-Call report showed mills with unfixed call sales of 23,888 contracts as of 9/13, with unfixed call purchases at 38,610 MT. The Cotlook A Index was down 90 points on September 19 at 71.50 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 54.62, effective through Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com