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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/06 10:53

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is 4 
to 7 cents higher. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 1,000 points as active trade 
continues. The dollar index is 5 points higher. Interest rate products are 
weaker. Energies are weaker with crude $2.00 higher. Livestock trade is mixed. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $37.70.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to see 
pressure as we grind along the lower end of the range with little fresh news 
and planting likely to expand in some areas early in the week Ethanol margins 
remain very poor, with trade still needing to find a level of demand that it's 
comfortable with short term. Corn basis will likely remain sideways for now 
with much of the slowdowns priced in at this point. Warmer weather will aid 
early week progress. Weekly export inspections were strong at 1.271 million 
metric tons. On the May contract support is the lower Bollinger band at $3.20, 
and resistance the 20-day at $3.47.


   Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with light two sided trade so 
far with support from declines in South American production, but pressure from 
their continued cheap currencies and demand concerns. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 
lower, and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. South America is continuing to 
harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern, while the real remains very 
weak with some revision lower on production due to late dryness. New-crop 
soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive with the 
price ratio failing to extend past 2.4 with time running down to make material 
changes. Weekly export inspections were soft at 298,124 metric tons. The May 
soybean chart support is the gap at $8.41, with resistance the 20-day at $8.62.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents higher at midday with frost across the Plains 
adding support, along with concerns about other exporting nations coming 
forward but little fresh news on that front. There has been talk of new Middle 
East import tenders short term, but otherwise world export news remains lacking 
with Algeria passing on tenders. Kansas City is at a 78-cent discount to 
Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -29 with 
wider action to start the week. Weekly export inspections were soft at 320,371 
metric tons. The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.65, with 
resistance the $5.00 area.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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