Grains Are Bearish After WASDE!

Hello All:

After the WASDE report on Wednesday of last week and the lack of a major weather / drought event in the U.S., we can safely assume that grains will head lower. Yes, that's right. Wheat, corn, beans are not bullish at all, not soley from my opinion, but the opinion of the largest source of agricultural market data called the USDA. If you wish to disagree with them, go right ahead, but right now the tendency is for the markets to head lower until further notice of an actual bullish drought event that impact the whole world!

As I mentioned before, the Global Stocks to Use Ratio is very important in real analysis of the markets. If you don't pay attention to this key indicator you are missing out!

GLOBAL S/U Ratio Wheat Corn Soybeans

2010/11 30.2 % 15.0 % 27.8 %

2011/12 28.2 % 14.9 % 21.6 %

2012/13 26.2 % 13.6 % 22.9 %

2013/14 27.8 % 18.4 % 22.6 %

2014/15 30.4 % 21.1 % 25.7 %

2015/16 34.1 % 22.0 % 24.5 %

2016/17 34.9 % 21.6 % 28.6 %

2017/18 35.4 % 18.9 % 26.8 % (JULY REPORT)

For all intents and purposes, with the above analysis, all grains should be heading lower. Wheat down to 4.50/4.60, corn to 3.60, soybeans down to 9.25/9.50 levels. If you have a problem with that analysis, then you are not facing reality of USDA not confirming bullish suspicions that the trade has had over the last 3-4 weeks regarding bullish Australian, EU, Black Sea, U.S. and even South American crop supply situations. Many things could change in the next 3-4 weeks regarding corn pollination in the U.S. and pod setting season for soybeans there as well, but more than likely, nothing will change as normally 8 times out of 10, by now, we have already surpassed the danger zone for the grains.

We are looking to put on aggressive bearspreads in Dec/Dec in wheat and Nov/ Nov in beans when opportunity arises. If you want more information on these strategies, I will be glad to lend a hand but I won't detail those strategies for free on this website. For that, you have to contact me directly and pay service fees for my valuable service. Sorry, no free lunches!

Best Regards

Edgard Cabanillas

Alpine Trading LLC

TEL: + 1 949 357 4948

email:edgard@alpine-trading.net

www.alpine-trading.net

** DISCLAIMER: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONSIS SPECULATIVE, INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS, AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.